地缘政治风险与中国对外直接投资的空间分布——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

The Geopolotical Risk and Spatial Distribution of China's Outward Direct Investment: Taking the Countries along “the Belt and Road”as an Example

本文主要研究地缘政治风险对中国在"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资的空间分布的影响。本文以2003—2016年"一带一路"沿线51个国家数据为样本,对中国的投资特征和影响因素进行详细分析。首先,通过引入空间权重矩阵,本文发现中国对"一带一路"投资的空间相关性显著。其次,本文将地缘政治风险分为暴力型与平和型,实证结果发现暴力型地缘政治风险与中国对外直接投资呈显著负相关,而平和型地缘政治风险的影响并不显著。最后,本文进一步发现具体地区对地缘政治风险的敏感程度表现出明显的区域差异。

This paper mainly studies the impact of geopolitical risks on the spatial distribution of China's direct investment in the countries along“the Belt and Road”,and takes 51 national data along“the Belt and Road”during 2003-2016 as a sample to analyze the investment characteristics and influencing factors of China in detail.First,by introducing the spatial weight matrix,this paper finds that China has a significant spatial correlation with“the Belt and Road”investment.Secondly,this paper divides geopolitical risks into violent and peaceful type,the empirical results show that violent geopolitical risks are significantly negatively correlated with China's foreign direct investment,while the impact of peaceful geopolitical risks is not significant.Finally,the paper further finds that the sensitivity of specific regions to geopolitical risks shows significant regional differences.