考虑不同侵扰场景的高速公路韧性评估方法

Assessment method of expressway resilience considering different intrusion scenes

为分析高速公路应对流量冲击和恶劣气象环境侵扰时的运行状态演变过程,基于韧性理论的系统解析,构建了考虑吸收能力、适应能力、恢复能力3个维度的韧性评估方法;设定重大节假日和恶劣天气2种侵扰场景,与常规场景进行对比分析,并选取滇西高原山区高速公路为实例进行验证。研究结果表明:恶劣天气降低了高速公路的总体韧性,韧性值较常规运行减少6. 85%;重大节假日的流量冲击主要影响高速公路韧性的稳定性,其方差较常规运行增加92%; 2种侵扰场景下的恢复能力波动均较大,而重大节假日时高速公路的吸收能力较强。

In order to analyze the evolvement process of the running state of expressway under the intrusion of traffic flow impact and bad weather environment, an assessment method of resilience considering three dimensions of absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity and recovery capacity was constructed based on the systematic analysis of resilience theory. Two intrusion scenes including the major holidays and bad weather were set up and compared with the regular scene, and the expressway in the plateau mountainous area of Western Yunnan was selected as an example to verify the method. The results showed that the bad weather reduced the overall resilience of expressway, and the resilience value decreased by 6.85% compared with the regular running. The flow impact of the major holidays mainly influenced the stability of expressway resilience, whose variance increased by 92% than that of the regular running. Both the recovery capacity under two intrusion scenes fluctuated greatly, and the absorptive capacity of expressway was stronger during the major holidays.