京沪高速客运通道旅客出行选择影响因素研究

Passenger Travel Choice Influencing Factors on Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Corridor

为深入研究旅客出行选择影响因素间的关系,依据非集计理论,以京沪高速客运通道旅客调研数据为基础,建立旅客出行方式选择的BinaryLogit模型,并采用决策树方法对BinaryLogit模型所得结果进行分类。研究结果表明,年龄影响为非线性且区分度较低,收入、性别、出行人数、费用来源影响较大,其中收入为最主要影响因素,而且不同收入水平下的影响因素存在差异,呈现出低收入独自公费女性、中等收入独自女性及较晚出行男性、高收入2人以内旅客更偏好民航。模型较好地描述了旅客出行选择影响因素,能够为高速铁路与民航设计符合不同类型旅客的客运产品提供依据。

This paper carries out an in-depth study on the relationships among the influencing factors of passenger travel choice based on the disaggregate theory and taking the survey data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed corridor.A Binary Logit model for passenger travel mode choice behavior is established and the results of Binary Logit model were classified by decision tree.The research results show that the age difference is the lowest and nonlinear effect,but the passenger’s income,gender,number of travelers and cost source have a great influence on the travel mode choice,especially monthly income.The influence factors are different under different income levels,such as low-income women travelling alone on business,middle-income women traveling alone,late male travelers and high-income passengers less than 2 prefer plane.The model well describes the influencing factors of passenger travel choice,and will provide the empirical basis for high-speed rail and air to design transportation products,which could meet the different types’passengers.