基于改进效用理论的调度操作风险评估

Risk Assessment of Scheduling Operation Based on Improved Utility Theory

针对效用理论函数求解风险指标严重度时存在的不足,及调度员在进行电网调度时对电网操作进行风险评估的需要,提出了基于改进效用理论的风险指标严重度求解函数。采用层次分析法设置不同越限、过载区间内指标损失系数曲线的斜率,增大指标严重度的差值。同时提出了最佳风险评估区域单元的概念,通过划分评估区域单元,排除计算风险指标严重度的干扰数据,准确真实地、有针对性地反映某项具体操作对电网产生的影响。通过两个实例分析,验证了所提方法的正确性和可行性。

In view of the deficiency of the utility theory function in solving the severity of the risk index,with regards to the dispatcher’s risk assessment of grid operation,this paper proposed a function for solving the risk index severity based on improved utility theory. Slopes of index loss coefficient curves for different limits and overload intervals were set in the analytic hierarchy process to increase the difference of index severities. Furthermore,it introduced the concept of optimal risk assessment region unit. Data interfering with calculation of risk index severity was eliminated through division of assessment region units,so that the impact produced by a specific operation upon the grid could be reflected in an accurate and truthful way. Finally,two examples were analyzed to verify the correctness and feasibility of the proposed method.