大气气态污染物对苏州市冠心病发病影响及高危因素研究

A study on the effects and high risk factors of atmospheric gaseous pollutants on coronary heart diseases in Suzhou

目的探讨大气气态污染物(SO_2、NO_2)对冠心病发病的影响效应,并对高危人群和易感季节进行分析。方法应用时间序列广义相加模型,研究大气气态污染物(SO_2、NO_2)对冠心病日发病数、高危人群与不同季节的影响。结果 2008—2017年苏州市冠心病日发病数,SO_2、NO_2浓度每升高10μg/m^3,男性分别增加1.434%(95%CI:0.304%～2.564%)、1.530%(95%CI:0.751%～2.309%);女性分别增加1.896%(95%CI:0.649%～3.143%)、1.889%(95%CI:1.026%～2.753%);≥65岁年龄组分别增加2.050%(95%CI:1.035%～3.064%)、2.112%(95%CI:1.408%～2.816%);冷季冠心病发病数分别增加2.732%(95%CI:1.573%～3.892%)、2.190%(95%CI:1.393%～2.986%)。结论大气中气态污染物浓度增加会引起冠心病发病率的增加,年龄≥65岁为高危人群,寒冷季节为冠心病发病高危因素。

Objective To analyze the effects of atmospheric gaseous pollutants (SO 2 and NO 2 ) on coronary heart diseases (CHD) incidence among Suzhou residents;to study high risk population and susceptible seasons. Methods Generalized additive model of time series were used to analyze the effects of atmospheric gaseous pollutants(SO 2 and NO 2 )on CHD incidence, high risk population and susceptible seasons. Results For every 10 μg/m 3 increment of SO 2 and NO 2 concentration, the number of CHD in Suzhou increased by 1.434%(95% CI : 0.304%-2.564%) and 1.530%(95% CI : 0.751%-2.309%) for males, respectively;the number of CHD increased by 1.896%(95% CI : 0.649%-3.143%) and 1.889%(95% CI : 1.026%- 2.753%) for females,respectively;the number of CHD in the age group over 65 years increased by 2.050%(95% CI :1.035%-3.064%) and 2.112%(95% CI :1.408%-2.816%),respectively;the number of CHD in cold seasons increased by 2.732%(95% CI : 1.573%-3.892%) and 2.190%(95% CI : 1.393%-2.986%),respectively. Conclusion The increment concentration of gaseous pollutants increases the incidence of CHD,the susceptible population is the age group of 65 years or older;while the cold season is a high risk factor for CHD.