西北地区房地产业与新型城镇化发展关系的动态计量研究

Dynamic econometric analysis on the relation between the real estate industry and the development of new urbanization in Northwest China

房地产业和新型城镇化发展之间具有交互作用的动态关系,受到资源禀赋等因素的影响,我国房地产业和新型城镇化发展水平具有明显的地区差异.研究以西北五省为例进行实证分析,首先构建房地产业和新型城镇化发展的评价指标体系,采用熵权法客观的测度房地产业和新型城镇化的发展水平.使用物理中的"耦合"理论,分别建立耦合度、协调度、同步发展模型,探索我国西北地区房地产业和新型城镇化的发展特性和动态关系.得出西北地区房地产业和新型城镇化发展进入磨合协同阶段的时间越晚则出现协同发展的潜力越大,总体呈现出中度耦合协同状态并存在向高度耦合协同发展的趋势.

The development of real estate industry and new urbanization interact dynamically.There are obvious regional differences in the level of the development of real estate industry and new urbanization in our country,which is affected by factors such as resource endowment and so on.The study takes the development of real estate industry and new urbanization of the five provinces in northwest China as an example for the empirical analysis.This is done,first by building the evaluation index system of the development level of real estate industry and new urbanization,using the entropy method to measure the development level of real estate industry and new urbanization objectively.Then physical“coupling”theory and the coupling degree,coordination degree,synchronous development models are used to explore the development characteristics and dynamic relationship between the development of new urbanization in Northwest China.Therefore,deducing a conclusion that,in the northwest region,the higher the potential for synergistic development,the later the phase of synergy of the real estate industry and the new urbanization.And the development of real estate industry and the new urbanization in the northwest region shows a moderate synergy and a trend toward high synergy.