HBV模型在富春江水库流域临界致灾面雨量确定中的应用

Application of HBV Model in Determination of Critical Catastrophic Surface Rainfall in Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin

[目的]研究分析HBV模型对于富春江流域径流序列模拟的适用性,并通过水位与径流量的关系,得到该流域各级水位的临界致灾面雨量,为暴雨灾害风险预警和评估业务提供服务产品,也为富春江水库的生产调度提供重要依据。[方法]以富春江水力发电站为研究区,应用研究区气象资料和HBV水文模型开展研究。[结果](1)应用HBV水文模型模拟富春江流域径流量,在序列的率定期和验证期,模拟与实测的径流过程分布一致,模拟径流峰值区与大降水的实况分布比较一致,模拟与实测洪峰的平均相对误差小于5%,经率定后的HBV模型在富春江流域的模拟效果较好。(2)通过建立降水、径流、水位三者的响应关系,可以确定水库在警戒水位、设计洪水位时不同前期水位的临界面雨量。[结论]HBV水文模型在研究区具有一定的适用性。当预报有临界面雨量时,水库可以根据雨量、径流的预报信息做出对水位的科学调控。

[Objective]The applicability of HBV model to the runoff sequence simulation of Fuchun River basin was investigated,and the critical disaster-causing surface rainfall of the water level at all levels of the basin was determined through the relationship between water level and runoff in order to provide a service product for the storm disaster risk warning and evaluation and an important basis for the production scheduling of Fuchunjiang Reservoir.[Methods]Taking Fuchunjiang hydropower station as a study area,the meteorological data and HBV hydrological model of the study area were applied.[Results]①Application of the HBV hydrological model in simulating Fuchunjiang river basin runoff,in a sequence of regular rate and validation period,showed an agreement between the simulated and measured distributions of runoff process.There also was a good relationship between the runoff peak area and live distribution of heavy precipitation.Besides,the mean relative error between the simulated and measured flood peak is less than 5%,indicated a good performance carried out by the calibrated HBV model in the study area.②Based on the response relationships among the precipitation,runoff,and water level,the warning water level of reservoir and critical surface rainfall could be determined.[Conclusion]The HBV hydrological model performed well to a certain degree in the study area.The reservoir can make a scientific regulation in water level according to the forecast information of rainfall and runoff,when the critical surface rainfall is predicted.