基于VAR模型的产业用水与经济增长动态关联性研究——以贵州省毕节市为例

Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

[目的]对岩溶生态脆弱区经济高速发展的产业用水与经济增长的动态关联性进行研究,为该区水资源与社会经济可持续及协调发展提供决策参考。[方法]以贵州省毕节市为例,运用向量自回归模型,通过ADF检验、协整性检验和Granger因果检验后进行了广义脉冲响应和方差分解分析,对2001—2016年的经济产值和产业用水间的均衡关系及动态关联性进行分析。[结果](1)农业产值与农业用水量、工业产值与工业用水量、生产总值与总用水量相互间均存在长期均衡关系;(2)农业产值对农业用水量、工业用水量对工业产值冲击响应值为正,其他均为负向冲击响应;(3)工业用水量对工业产值的平均方差分解贡献度最大(为54.584%),农业用水量对农业产值的平均方差分解贡献度最小(为1.629 7%),其他变量间的方差分解贡献度均比较大,说明毕节市的发展仍需要大量水资源的开发利用。[结论]农业用水量对农业产值的促进作用较小,工业用水量对工业产值的增加有较强的促进作用,但工业用水量不足对工业发展已存在一定的负面作用,伴随着经济的进一步增长需加强生产、节水技术等的投入。

[Objective]The objective of this study is to present practical research on the long-term equilibrium relationship between utilization of water resources and economic growth and provide decision reference for the sustainable and coordinated development of water resources and social economy in karst ecologically fragile areas with rapid economic development.[Methods]Selected Bijie City of Guizhou Province as a case study,and employed the VAR(vector autoregressive)model for analysis.The equilibrium relationship between utilization of water resources and economic growth of the industrial system in Bijie City from 2001 to 2016 was analyzed by ADF smoothness test,co-integration test and granger causality test,generalized impulse response and variance decomposition analysis.[Results]①There existed long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and total water consumption,agricultural output and agricultural water consumption,industrial output value and industrial water consumption;②The impulse response of agricultural output value to agricultural water consumption and industrial water consumption to industrial output value was positive,and the others were negative;③The contribution of industrial water consumption to the average variance decomposition of industrial output value was 54.584%,the contribution of agricultural water consumption to agricultural output value was 1.629 7%,and the variance contribution of other variables was relatively large,indicating that development still requires a lot of water resources development and utilization.[Conclusion]The effect of agricultural water consumptione on promoting agricultural output value was little,and industrial water consumption on the increase of industrial output value was strong.However,the shortage of industrial water consumption impedes industrial development.Along with economic growth,the investment in production and water saving technologies should be further strengthened.