面向土地利用总体规划的建设用地空间管制潜在冲突检测

Potential Conflict Detection in Space Control of Construction Land Based on Overall Land Use Planning

[目的]准确识别、检测建设用地空间管制分区与城市扩张之间的潜在冲突,以期为下一轮土地利用总体规划的实施与土地资源管理工作的开展提供理论参考与技术方法支撑。[方法]基于CA-Markov模型模拟预测了2020年江苏省常州市土地利用状况,在此基础上集成GIS空间分析技术,识别并检测了常州市2015—2020年建设用地空间管制分区与城市未来发展之间的潜在冲突区域。[结果](1)2020年常州市建设用地总量及新增量规模将分别达到规划目标的101.16%,159.97%,即会突破土地利用总体规划目标;禁止建设区内建设用地空间管制潜在冲突面积较少;(2)限制建设区内建设用地空间管制潜在冲突面积较大,约占新增建设用地面积的59.23%,其中约有59.15%的潜在冲突分布在武进区。[结论]在常州市下一轮土地利用总体规划编制与实施过程中,应重点强化对限制建设区内潜在冲突区域的管控。

[Objective]In order to provide theoretical reference and technical methods for the implementation of the next round of overall land use planning and the carrying out of the land resources management,we aimed to accurately identify and detect the potential conflicts between land use control zones and urban expansion.[Methods]Based on the CA-Markov model,the land use status of Changzhou City,Jiangsu Province in 2020 was simulated.Then,the spatial analysis technology of GIS was applied to identify and detect the potential conflict areas between the spatial regulation zone of construction lands and the development trends of Changzhou City from 2015 to 2020.[Results]①The total scale of construction land and the amount of newly increased construction land will reach 101.16%and 159.97%respectively,which will exceed the goal of the overall land use planning by 2020;②Little potential conflicts between construction land and the prohibiting construction zone was detected during 2015-2020;there is more areas of potential conflict between construction land and the limiting construction zone compared with the prohibiting construction zone,and about 59.15%of the potential conflict areas are mainly distributed in Wujin District.[Conclusion]The goveronment of Changzhou City should strengthen the control and management of the potential conflict areas in the limiting construction zone during the next round of land use planning.