中国“过度去工业化”现象剖析与理论反思

Phenomenon Analysis and Theoretical Reflection of China's ‘Over De-industrialization'

工业化是一个螺旋式转型升级的长期过程。从广义角度看,工业化可分为浅度工业化和深度工业化两个阶段,前者属于以提高工业比重为目标的扩张型工业化,后者则属于以提高工业质量和竞争力为核心的收缩型工业化,它是浅度工业化的转型升级。传统工业化阶段理论划分的工业化实现阶段即工业化初期、中期和后期,实际上只是实现了浅度工业化目标,而工业经济发展任务并没有真正终结。从浅度工业化到深度工业化的转型升级,是一个大国提升工业经济发展质量和竞争力的必经阶段。中国目前尚未真正完全实现工业化,在工业化发展不平衡不充分的前提下,近年来工业增加值和就业比重快速下降,呈现全面、过早、快速的"过度去工业化"特征。中国现阶段的"过度去工业化"不仅受"一哄而上"的产业升级冲动影响,而且是要素价格上涨、阶段性产能过剩等多重因素共同作用的结果,这会对中国经济增长、生产率提升、现代服务业发展和农业劳动力转移产生严重的消极影响。在今后较长一段时期内,从提升工业化质量以及工业与服务业、实体经济与虚拟经济的辩证关系出发,以先进制造业为主体的工业依然是支撑中国经济实现持续稳定的中高速增长的重要动力,继续推进深度工业化依然任重而道远。为此,要消除传统的理论和思想误区,重新审视工业化的重要性,实施深度工业化战略,防范"过度去工业化"。具体措施是,在东部发达地区加快推进深度工业化,在中西部地区建立一批先进制造业基地,同时促进先进制造业与现代服务业深度融合发展。

Industrialization takes a screw type process of transformation and upgrading.In a broad sense,industrialization can be divided into two stages:shallow industrialization and deep industrialization.The first stage belongs to the expansion industrialization,which aims at increasing the proportion of industry.The second stage belongs to the contraction industrialization,which aims at improving industrial quality and competitiveness,and deep industrialization is the stage of the transformation and upgrading of shallow industrialization.The traditional industrialization stage theory divides the industrialization realization stages into the early stage,the middle stage and the late stage.In fact,the industrialization realization stage only achieves the goal of shallow industrialization.The task of industrial economic development has not really ended.The transformation and upgrading from shallow industrialization to deep industrialization is an insurmountable stage in the economic development of a major country.China has not fully realized industrialization yet,and the development of industrialization is unbalanced and inadequate.However,the proportion of industrial added value and industrial employment were having a rapid decline in recent years,which could be called over de-industrialization.Over de-industrialization in China appears the features of comprehensive,precocious and quickly.At the present stage,over de-industrialization is not only because of the“rush forward”impulse of industrial upgrading,but also affected by the increasing of factor price and overcapacity.Over de-industrialization could have a serious negatively impact on the economic growth,productivity improvement,modern service industry development,and agricultural labor transference.For a long time,to improve the quality of industrialization,and from the relationship between industry and service industry,real economy and virtual economy,industries dominated by advanced manufacturing will remain an important driving force for China’s economic growth.We should eliminate traditional theoretical and ideological misunderstandings,and re-examine the importance of industrialization.In addition,we should implement the strategy of deep industrialization,and prevent over de-industrialization.The main path of preventing over de-industrialization is to accelerate the deep industrialization in the developed eastern regions,building advanced manufacturing base in the midwest,and promoting integration development of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry.