劳动生产率冲击、工资粘性与中国实际经济周期

Labor Productivity Shock, Wage Stickiness and Real Business Cycle in China

中国劳动力市场正处于转型期,由劳动力市场因素引起的宏观经济波动日益凸显,对新时期劳动生产率冲击和工资粘性影响经济周期波动问题的研究能够为中国减轻劳动生产率冲击和促进经济持续健康发展提供学理支撑。本文通过在新凯恩斯DSGE模型中引入劳动生产率冲击与工资交错议价过程,对劳动生产率冲击和工资粘性影响中国经济周期波动的作用特征、传导机制及其模拟效果进行了深入分析。研究发现:(1)中国劳动力市场存在明显的工资粘性现象和市场分离作用,且该作用主要来源于劳动生产率冲击;(2)劳动生产率冲击可以解释约15%的产出波动和50%以上的劳动力市场波动;(3)工资粘性条件下劳动生产率冲击对产出和就业的影响更大,对工资的影响更温和,工资粘性和劳动生产率冲击的同时存在能够加强外生冲击对宏观经济的影响;(4)市场中工资粘性程度越高,社会福利损失越大,而由劳动生产率冲击带来的间接福利损失远高于其带来的直接福利损失。本文从劳动力市场角度解释了中国经济周期波动现象,为设计相关的宏观经济稳定政策提供了重要的参考依据。

China’s labour market is in the process of transition,the macroeconomic fluctuations caused by labour market factors is rising,studing the effects of labour productivity shock and wage stickiness on China’s economic cycle fluctuation in the new period can provide theoretical support for China to reduce the effects of labor productivity shock and promote the sustainable and healthy economic development.By introducing labor productivity shock and wage staggered bargaining process in new Keynesian DSGE models,this paper studies the effects of both the labor productivity shock and wage stickiness on China’s economic cycle fluctuation characteristics,transmission mechanism,and their impacts.Research finds:First,there is obvious wage stickiness and market separation in China’s labor market,and the separation effect is mainly caused by labor productivity shock.Second,labor productivity shock can explain about 15 percent of output volatility and more than 50 percent of labour market volatility.Third,under the condition of wage stickiness,the impacts of labor productivity shock on output and employment is bigger,the influence of the impact on wage is softer,both wage stickiness and labor productivity shock exist simultaneously can strengthen the exogenous shock impact on the macro economy.Fourth,the higher the wage stickiness in the market,the greater the social welfare loss,and the indirect welfare loss caused by the labor productivity shock is much higher than the direct welfare loss.This paper explains China’s economic cycle fluctuation from the perspective of the labor market,provides a important reference for the related macroeconomic stable policy design.