中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家入境旅游增长的投资追随效应

Pursuing Effects of Investment on Inbound Tourism Growth in China with Countries along “Maritime Silk Road”

利用2006—2016年中国与“海上丝路”沿线国家的实际利用外商直接投资(FDI)与入境旅游(FVA)的面板数据,基于分位数回归和空间自相关,分析FDI对中国入境旅游增长的动态效应以及二者的空间分布特征。结果发现:1)中国实际利用“海上丝路”沿线国家FDI对FVA增长表现出正向的促进作用。在其他变量保持不变的条件下,FDI对FVA的弹性增长效应在0.04%~0.48%的范围浮动。2)FDI对FVA的边际效应存在分位数差异,倒“U”型变化趋势明显。在25%分位点上FDI对FVA增长的促进作用达到最大,之后沿着50%,10%,75%,90%的分位点方向依次减弱。3)中国与“海上丝路”沿线国家FDI和FVA的空间依赖性特征显著,存在空间集聚态势。2006—2016年中国与“海上丝路”沿线国家FDI和FVA的空间关联性不断增强;印度、泰国为入境旅游和投资的增长引擎区,缅甸为滞后发展区。

Using the panel data of FDI and FVA in China with countries along“Maritime Silk Road”from 2006 to 2016,based on quantile regression and spatial autocorrelation model,this paper analyzes the quantile effects between FDI and FVA growth of China as well as spatial distribution features.The results shows:1)FDI of countries along“Maritime Silk Road”has a positive role in China’s inbound tourism.Under the condition of other variables remain unchanged,the elastic increasing effects maintain within 0.04%~0.48%.2)Quantiles differences exist in the marginal effect of FDI on China’s FVA growth,the effect curve is characterized by the inverted“U”type.Its largest positive effect is 25%quantiles,followed down 50%,10%,75%and 90%quantile direction.3)There shows a significant spatial dependence feature both of FDI and FVA,as well as a spatial gathering evolution tendency.The spatial distribution of FDI and FVA present a growing spatial correlation from 2006 to 2016 in China with countries along“Maritime Silk Road”,India and Thailand are growth area,Myanmar is lagging development area.