旅游舆情网络关注度时空演变特征与影响因素

Spatial-temporal Evolutionary Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Network Attention to Tourism Public Opinion

以"天价虾"为旅游舆情样本,基于百度指数,分析旅游舆情网络关注度时空演变特征与影响因素。结果表明:(1)旅游舆情网络关注度总体呈现极速上升、指数式衰减、阶段性显著提升的演变轨迹;月度为加速收敛波动态势,月内分布相对差异但有均衡化趋势;周内分布为"工作日高,周末低"。(2)旅游目的地气候舒适度、媒体关注度、旅游时间对舆情网络关注度有显著影响,媒体关注度的影响在当期显著,跨期影响并不明显;假日效应、周内效应的影响存在异质性。(3)旅游舆情网络关注度省际差异大,强弱分布呈现空间跳跃特点;大陆关注度远高于港澳台,澳门为0关注;东中西网络关注度呈现梯度递减规律,其区域绝对差异从大到小依次为东部、西部、中部,西部、东部、中部的相对差异依次递减。(4)网络发达程度、经济发展水平、地缘网络、空间距离是影响旅游舆情网络关注度空间变化的显性因素,媒体关注度与教育发达程度的空间影响未能通过实证检验。

Based on Baidu Index,using“Astronomically expensive shrimp”public opinion as the sample,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of network attention to tourism public opinion.The research shows that:The general network attention to tourism public opinion shows the path of rapid increase,exponential decrease and significant improvement by stage.It follows the accelerative convergence trend by month,and the monthly distribution has a balanced trend.Network attention to tourism public opinion is higher in working days,while lower in weekend.The degree of comfort climate and media attention have a significant positive impact on the network attention to tourism public opinion,the positive impact of media attention on network attention is significant in the current period,while,the intertemporal impact is not significant.The network attention degree is a decrescence function of time,and the network attention degree decreases 0.62~0.65%with each passing day.There is heterogeneity in the influence of holiday effect and week effect on the degree of network attention to tourism public opinion network.There is a large difference in the degree of network attention to tourism public opinion among provinces,the strong and weak distribution has spatial jump characteristics.The network attention to tourism public opinion in mainland is much higher than that in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,Macao has a zero network attention.The eastern,central and western regions show the law of gradient decline in network attention to tourism public opinion.And the absolute difference of the regional network attention to tourism public opinion has a gradient decadence from east to west,the relative difference of the regional network attention experience a gradient decadence from west to east to the middle mainland.The degree of network development,the level of economic development,geographical network and spatial distance are the dominant factors influencing the spatial change of network attention to tourism public opinion,but the significant influence of media attention and education development on network attention to tourism public opinion cannot be proved by empirical test.