环境规制对京津冀工业发展的门槛效应

Threshold Effect of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

选取京津冀区域13个城市相关面板数据,测算各城市的环境规制强度。运用普通面板模型和门槛回归模型,验证环境规制与工业产业发展的关系、门槛效应和城市空间异质性特征。结果表明:(1)环境规制对京津冀工业发展总体产生负效应,产业低水平建设、科技创新能力较低等在一定程度上抑制了区域工业发展,基础设施建设起积极促进作用;(2)随着环境规制强度由弱变强,对京津冀区域工业发展产生先抑制、后促进的影响,且表现出双门槛特征和空间异质性;(3)基于双门槛特征的京津冀城市"强""中""弱"3个规制组的划分,识别产业优化发展路径。从制定地区差异化的环境规制、促进控制型与激励型环境规制相结合、建立环境规制区域产业协调机制3个方面提出对策建议。

Environmental regulation is a kind of endogenous incentives which can effectively promote the high-end development of the industry through the imposition of environmental constraints on micro-enterprises.Meantime,it produced the reverse force effect of promoting industrial upgrading.Based on the panel data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the environmental regulation intensity of each city was measured.Then the common panel model and threshold regression model were established to examine the effect of environmental regulation,the threshold characteristics and the spatial heterogeneity on industrial development.The results showed that:(1)Environmental regulation had a negative effect on the overall industrial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.To a certain extent,the low level of industrial construction and the low technological innovation capability had inhibited the regional industrial development.However,the steady progress of infrastructure had played a positive role in promoting.(2)When using the intensity of industrial pollution as the threshold parameter,with the regulation strength increasing,its influence trajectory on industrial development would turn to be inhibiting first,then promoting in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Meantime,it showed the double threshold characteristics and spatial heterogeneity.(3)Based on the characteristics of double threshold,cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are divided into“strong”,“medium”and“weak”regulatory groups to identify the industrial optimization development path.On this basis,some suggestions were put forward based on above research with respect to adjusting the environmental regulation of designated areas,promoting the combination of control and incentive environment,and establishing the regional coordination mechanism of environmental regulation.