地区收入水平、劳动有效税率与人力资本供给的关系

Regional Income Level,Labor Effective Tax Rate and Human Capital Accumulation-Based on Empirical Study with Provincial Variable Coefficient Panel Data

本文运用国际通行方法评估中国省际的劳动平均有效税率及人力资本水平,运用省际变系数面板数据模型分析1998—2016年地区发展水平和劳动有效税率对人力资本的影响及其内在逻辑,并进一步分析地区发展水平、劳动有效税率与人力资本的关系在各省份之间的差异。研究发现,地区发展水平与人力资本积累正相关,在中国现行税制下,对劳动所得征税会导致收入效应大于替代效应。但是影响在区域之间存在差异,东部地区的人力资本积累与劳动有效税率显著正相关,与地区人均收入相关关系不显著;中西部地区的人力资本积累与人均收入和劳动有效税率均显著正相关。最后对实证结论进行解释,并提出增进各地区人力资本水平的建议。

This paper evaluates the provincial average labor effective tax rate and human capital level in China by the international standard methods,then analyses the influence of regional development level and labor effective tax rate on human capital and its inner logic based on provincial panel data model with variable coefficients in 1998-2016.And the paper further analyses the differences among regional income level,labor effective tax rate and human capital in different provinces in China.The study finds that the regional income level and human capital accumulation are positively correlated.Under current tax system in China,the income effect is greater than the replacing effect of labor income tax.But the impact is different among regions.In eastern China,there is a significant positive correlation between the human capital accumulation and the labor effective tax rate,but no significant positive correlation between the human capital accumulation and the regional per capita income.In central and western China,human capital accumulation,regional per capita income and labor effective tax rate show a significant direct correlation.At last,this paper explains the empirical conclusions and proposes the countermeasures to improve the human capital accumulation in different regions.