基于MCR与Markov-CA模型的城镇增长边界划定研究——以江苏省新沂市为例

Study on the Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on MCR and Markov-CA Model——A Case Study of Xinyi City in Jiangsu Province

从城镇用地外部条件对城镇扩张的影响和城镇用地内在发展规律两个方面出发,通过耦合最小累积阻力模型与Markov-CA模型,探讨了一种结合阻力分析与动力分析的城镇增长边界划定思路,并以新沂市为例进行实证分析。首先,结合研究区实际情况,选取相对阻力因子,通过MCR模型对城镇扩张建立最小累积阻力图, 从而获得城镇增长刚性边界;其次,以Markov-CA模型作为动力模拟模型预测2020年的城镇扩张,从而划定城镇增长弹性边界;最后,综合城镇刚性增长边界、2020年城镇用地扩张模拟结果,获得2020年最终的城镇增长边界。结果表明,研究区城镇增长边界内总面积为154.15km^2,占研究区国土总面积的9.7%。

Based on the influence of the external conditions of urban land use on urban expansion and the intrinsic developing rules of urban land development,through the combination of urban minimum growth resistance model and Markov-CA model,this article discusses an idea of the urban growth boundary delimitation from combined resistance analysis and dynamic analysis by taking Xinyi City as an example for empirical analysis.Firstly,based on the actual situation of the study area,the relative resistance factor is selected,and the minimum cumulative resistance map is established for urban expansion through the MCR model to obtain the rigid boundary of urban growth.Secondly,the Markov-CA model is used as the dynamic simulation model to predict the urban expansion in 2020.In this way,the elastic growth boundary of urban growth is delineated.Finally,the urban rigid growth boundary and the urban land expansion simulation result in 2020 will be used to obtain the final urban growth boundary in 2020.The results show that the total area within the urban growth boundary of the study area is 154.15 km^2,accounting for 9.7%of the total land area in the study area.