灾难经历、时间偏好与家庭储蓄行为

Natural Disaster, Time Preference and Saving Decision

一直以来,学术界就灾难经历对个体时间偏好的影响争议不断。本文从时间偏好的心理实质出发,在理清认知判断、自我控制、时间偏好和家庭储蓄行为关系的基础上,提出灾难冲击对个体跨期选择行为影响的一般分析框架。我们认为灾难冲击至少使人的自我控制能力和认知判断能力中的一种得到提升,引起时间偏好增强并最终致使储蓄增加。本文以汶川地震为例,综合使用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法、广义分位数回归法和合成控制法研究发现:地震后,灾区城镇家庭户主做事情更加集中精力,更加主动积极(暗示了认知判断能力提升),二者均对自我控制能力产生影响,但方向相反,最终结果不确定。另外,灾后户主做事更加有主见,认知判断能力提升。以上自我控制能力与认知判断能力的综合变化最终使得时间偏好增强,储蓄增加。

The impact of disaster experiences on individual time preference has long been discussed in academic circles.As a result,this paper attempts to rediscover the psychological essence of time preference,clarifying their relationship among congnitive judgment,self-control,time preference and family saving behaviour.The paper puts forward a general analysis framework on the impact of disaster shock on individual intertemporal selection,and a thorough analytical study is then carried out with its corresponding verification from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Firstly,it is theoretically hypothesised that the impact of a disaster leads to at least an improvement in self-control or cognitive judgment,giving rise to an increase in time preference and ultimately in savings.Thus,taking the earthquake in the Chinese county of Wenchuan as an example and conducting a study by combining the propensity score matching and the difference in differences method(PSM-DID),the general quantile regression(GQR)and the synthesis control method(SCM),we find that:the Wenchuan earthquake meant that urban household heads in disaster-stricken areas became more focused on their affairs,more proactive,more cognitive and assertive.Summarising all these influences,we come to the conclusion that individuals'time preference increased significantly,producing an increase in their savings.