政府补贴与产能过剩

Government Subsidies and Excess Capacity

政府补贴为什么会导致行业产能过剩?本文构建博弈模型,从短期非稳定均衡和长期稳定均衡两层面依次分析生产补贴、投产补贴、购置补贴三种政府补贴模式引发行业产能过剩的内在机理。理论分析发现:(1)在短期,补贴激起在位企业的产能扩张并不造成行业产能过剩;在长期,只要补贴强度高达足以激励起新企业进入,行业就会出现产能过剩,且补贴强度越大,行业产能过剩越严重。(2)补贴所致的行业产能过剩其实是原已在位的老企业产能过剩,后续进入的新企业则产能适宜。(3)在不同补贴强度下,投产补贴比生产补贴和购置补贴在引发行业产能过剩方面更脆弱,但在相同的补贴强度下,后两者比前者引发行业产能过剩的程度更严重。现实案例表明,政府的补贴实践所引发的一对正负效应,促进行业发展壮大和造成行业产能过剩,确与理论分析大致吻合,即本文的理论框架能够揭示产能过剩的政府补贴之谜。基于三种补贴模式的正负效应异同性,进一步从理论上提出事前防范产能过剩的具体方案:(1)可以借助博弈树来相机选择不同补贴强度下的最优补贴策略,从而起到在事中使补贴政策极大促进行业发展壮大的同时尽量规避出现产能过剩。(2)能够借助量化手段来控制补贴强度,从而起到事前预知政府补贴促进行业发展壮大的正效应和造成行业产能过剩的负效应各有多大。

Why does government subsidy lead to excess capacity?From the two aspects of short-term unstable and long-term stable equilibrium,a game model is constructed to analyze the mechanisms of excess capacity led by three modes of government subsidy,such that production subsidies,establish subsidies and purchase subsidies.The theoretical analysis found that:(1)in the short run,the expansion of capacity caused by subsidies does not result in excess capacity in the industry;in the long run,as long as the intensity of subsidies is high enough to encourage new enterprises to enter,the industry will have excess capacity,and the greater the intensity of subsidies,the more serious the excess capacity in the industry.(2)The excess capacity of the industry caused by subsidies is the excess capacity of the existing old enterprises,while the capacity of the subsequent new enterprises is comfort capacity.(3)Under different subsidy intensity,capacity subsidy is more vulnerable than production subsidy and purchase subsidy in inducing overcapacity,but under the same subsidy intensity,the latter two are more serious than the former in inducing overcapacity.The actual cases show that the industry development effect and the excess capacity effect caused by the government subsidy practice are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis,that is,the theoretical framework of ours can reveal the mystery of the government subsidy of excess capacity.Based on the similarities and differences of the positive and negative effects of the three subsidy modes,this paper further proposes a specific plan to prevent excess capacity in advance in theory:(1)game tree can be used to choose the optimal subsidy strategy under different subsidy intensity,so as to make the subsidy policy greatly promote the development of the industry on the one hand,while avoiding excess capacity on the other hand.(2)We can use quantitative means to control the intensity of subsidies,so as to predict in advance the positive effects of government subsidies to promote industry development and the negative effects of excess capacity.