特朗普政府对东盟政策走向

Trump Administration's Policy towards ASEAN

美国对东盟政策是影响东亚区域一体化与合作进程的重要变量,对其政策走向的研究,是保持东亚一体化良好局面,维护周边稳定合作大局的一项重要研究议程。奥巴马时期,在"亚太再平衡"战略的驱动下,美国加强了与东盟关系,试图以东盟多边机制为着力点,主导东亚区域一体化与合作进程,平衡中国的地区影响力。然而,这一政策未达到预期效果。特朗普上任后,美国新政府对东盟政策出现变数,在参与东盟为中心的东亚区域进程方面,特朗普政府的兴趣可能会减弱。但从美学界讨论、官方文件、政策实践方面来看,美国不大可能改变已有的亚太战略目标,在调整实现目标的手段和途径方面,余地也比较有限。这意味,美国参与东盟区域合作议程的总体趋势不会改变。

The US policy towards ASEAN is an important variable affecting the process of regional integration and cooperation in East Asia.The study of its trend is an important research agenda for keeping dynamics of regional integration and maintaining stability and cooperation in our neighborhood.During the Obama Administration,driven by the“Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy”,the US strengthened its relations with ASEAN,attempting to take ASEAN multilateral institutions as a platform to lead the process of regional integration and cooperation in East Asia,and to balance China s regional influence.However,this policy did not achieve its desired effect.As President Trump went into office,the US policy toward ASEAN was faced with a possible change;the new Administration could play down its interest and involvement in ASEAN-centered East Asia regionalism.However,with an extensive review of recent policy discussions and policy agenda in the US,the essay contends that it is unlikely that the US changes the existing Asia-Pacific strategic goals,and there is limited room to adjust the means and ways to achieve the goals,which means that it is improbable that the Trump Administration would readjust substantially its engagement with ASEAN.