灰色系统理论在采空区瓦斯抽采纯量预测中的应用

Application of Grey System Theory in Prediction of Purity-gas Drainage Volume from Goaf

为了准确预测采空区瓦斯抽采纯量,本文将GM (1,1)模型与Markov模型有机结合,构建了GM(1,1)残差-Markov预测模型.以安徽淮北某矿采空区瓦斯抽采纯量为例,分别利用GM (1,1),GM(1,1)残差,GM(1,1)残差-Markov预测模型进行预测,对模型预测结果运用后验差检验比值c及小概率精度p进行精度检验.结果表明,GM(1,1)残差-Markov预测模型达到优等,适合对近期的采空区瓦斯抽采纯量进行预测.

In order to accurately predict the purity gas drainage volume from the goaf, this paper combines the GM (1,1) model with the Markov model, and constructs the GM (1,1) residual-Markov predicting model. The amount of gas drainage from the goaf of a certain mine in Huaibei City, Anhui Province is used. For example, it is respectively predicted by using the GM (1,1), GM (1,1) residuals, and GM (1,1) residual-Markov predicting models, and uses posterior variance ratio test c and small probability accuracy p for accuracy testing. Results show that the GM(1,1) residual-Markov prediction model is excellent, so it is suitable for predicting the recent purity gas drainage volume from the goaf.