气候变化对滇中引水工程取水影响分析

Influence of climate change on water intake of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project

气候变化正在逐渐改变全球的水循环现状,并对水文水资源及其应用产生重大影响。在联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)对气候变化趋势进行分析的基础上,优选近期、远期气候变化情景,并模拟在未来气候变化情景下金沙江流域干流主要断面的逐日流量过程,用以分析气候变化对金沙江干流石鼓断面水文干旱以及对滇中引水工程取水的影响。研究结果表明:受未来可能的气候变化影响,金沙江干流石鼓断面的水文干旱发生强度和发生频率都将有所增加,远期较近期具有高的不确定性;滇中引水工程不可取水天数和可调水量将会增加,但总体而言对工程的不利影响较小。

Climate change is gradually changing the global water cycle status,and will have a significant impact on the hydrology and water resources utilization.Based on the predictions to climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the recent and long term climate change scenarios were selected and the daily flow process of main stations on the Jinsha River main stream was simulated to analyze the impacts of climate change on hydrological drought of Shigu cross-section and water intake of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project.The results show that affected by the probable future climate change,the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought at Shigu cross-section will both increase,and the long-term uncertainty is higher than short-term uncertainty.The number of days unable to intake water increases as well as the transferable water quantity of Central-Yunnan Water Diversion Project,but generally speaking,climate change has small adverse influence on the project.