俄罗斯政府稳定运营的财税基础:规模与结构

Fiscal and Tax Base for the Smooth Operation of the Russian Government: Capacity and Structure

2018年俄罗斯联邦预算由赤字转为盈余,国家财政出现了根本性好转。2019～2021年,俄罗斯依然实行紧缩性财政政策,保持财政税收盈余。自2019年开始,俄罗斯将开展大规模财税改革,一是提高增值税税率,二是降低社会保险缴费费率。从预算收入平衡角度来说,增值税税率提高和社会保险缴费费率降低不会带来预算失衡的风险,但增值税税率提高将引发物价全面上涨,直接影响居民生活;降低预算外社会保险缴费费率,又会对国家社会保障收入产生影响,给已经赤字严重的国家预算外养老保险基金带来冲击。这些都会对俄罗斯社会经济发展带来一定的不利影响。

Russia′s 2018 federal budget is in surplus in contrast to previous years′deficits,indicating that its fiscal condition has been fundamentally ameliorated.It is expected that Russia′s fiscal revenue will be in surplus over the 2019-2021 period.However,it is likely that Russia′s significant fiscal and tax reform measures,as represented by the increase in the VAT rate and the reduction in social security contribution rate,will impose negative effects on its social economic development.