经济周期、人力资本与新结构经济增长理论研究

The Economic Cycle,Human Capital and The New Structural Economic Growth Theory

关于后发国家如何实现长期增长,新结构经济学给出了一个全新而极具操作性的分析框架。本文以新结构经济学理论范式对索洛增长模型提出了基于人口和技术的两种修正,发现更大的人口基数摊薄了长期资本劳动比,从而带来同一技术周期内,人口大国更长的经济增长。同时,本文基于全球化过程中的要素禀赋稀缺性特征,认为人口大国国内会形成二元要素禀赋比较优势,这将延长其处于同一要素禀赋经济结构中的时间长度,因此需要更长的城镇化和产业结构升级进程来完成现代化。

As for how to achieve long-term economic growth in the backward countries,new structural economics provides a new and highly operational analysis framework.In this paper,we use a new structural economic theory to correct solow growth model based on two kinds of correction-population and technology.Found that a larger population base diluted the long-term capital labor ratio,resulting in the same technology cycle,longer populous country economic growth.At the same time,based on the scarcity of factor endowments characteristics in the process of globalization,think the populous country domestic will form a binary comparative advantages of factor endowments,it will extend the length of time in the in the same economic structure of factor endowments,so need more urbanization and industrial structure upgrade process to accomplish modernization.