人民币国际化对中国东盟贸易的影响

The Impact of RMB Internationalization on China-ASEAN Trade

随着中国与东盟贸易与投资日益紧密和快速发展,中国东盟的贸易额呈现扩大的趋势。在拉动两地区贸易的增长过程中,货币交易极为重要。通过建立多元回归模型,对2002～2017年人民币国际化与中国东盟贸易额进行实证分析。利用E-views软件,运用最小二乘法,将GDP、按GDP平减指数衡量的通货膨胀率、人民币真实利率作为一个系统,对中国东盟贸易额影响因素进行回归分析,并进行模型检验,基于检验结论得出人民币国际化对中国东盟贸易的影响极为显著。人民币国际化的提升对中国东盟互联互通具有重要影响,在促进资金融通、经济政策沟通、贸易畅通等方面起到了重要作用。

With the increasingly close and rapid development of trade and investment between China and ASEAN,the trade volume of China-ASEAN has shown an expanding trend.Currency trading is extremely important in driving the growth of trade between the two regions and its economic development.This paper empirically analyzes the internationalization of RMB from 2002 to 2017 and the trade volume of China-ASEAN,and establishes a multiple regression model.Through E-views,using the least squares method,the GDP,the inflation rate measured by the GDP deflator,and the real interest rate of the renminbi are used as a system to conduct regression analysis on the factors affecting the trade volume of China-ASEAN,and to carry out model tests and regression coefficients.Significantly,based on the test conclusions,it is concluded that the impact of RMB internationalization on China-ASEAN trade is extremely significant.The promotion of RMB internationalization has an important impact on China-ASEAN interconnection and has played an important role in promoting financial and financial communication,economic policy communication,and smooth trade.