山东省莱西市奶牛结核病流行率及风险因素分析

Prevalence and Risk Factors Analysis for Bovine Tuberculosis in Laixi City of Shandong Province

为估计山东省莱西市奶牛结核病(b TB)的流行率,分析场间传播可能的风险因素,对该地区548个奶牛养殖场(户)进行流行病学调查。通过ELISA检测,估计b TB的群表观流行率(AP)为6.9%,群真实流行率(TP)为7.3%(95%CI:4.7%～10.0%);通过ELISA和单纯皮内变态反应(SICT)垂直试验,估计b TB个体AP为1.0%,TP为1.9%(95%CI:1.6%～2.2%)。Logistic回归分析表明,规模场、无隔离措施、无产犊场地、场外人员接生是b TB场间传播的潜在风险因素。建立的回归模型拟合度较好(P=0.05),ROC曲线面积为0.808(95%CI:0.736～0.880),预测概率较好。本研究可为该地区奶牛结核病防控策略的改进提供技术支持。

In order to estimate the prevalence and analyze the risk factors for bovine tuberculosis(bTB)in Laixi City of Shangdong Province,an epidemiological investigation was conduct towards 548 local dairy cow farms.Through enzyme linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA),the herd apparent prevalence(AP)and true prevalence (TP)were respectively 6.9% and 7.3%(95%CI:4.7%–10.0%).By ELISA and SICT serial test,the individual AP and TP were estimated as 1.0% and 1.9%(95%CI:1.6%–2.2%).Based on logistic regression analysis,it was found that the scaled farms,lack of quarantine measures and calving area,and delivering calves by non-professional persons were potential risk factors.A regression model was establihed and the goodness of fit was well(P=0.05).The area under the ROC curve was 0.808(95%CI:0.736–0.880)which shoned a good pvedicted probability.This study can provide technical supports for improvement of bTB prevention and control methods in Laixi City.