中国开放型经济的“共轭环流论”:理论与证据

The Conjoint Circulation Theory of China's Open Economy:Theory and Argumentation

在产品内国际分工框架下,探究以新兴市场经济体为枢纽的全球分工网络,以及影响新兴市场经济体分工地位变动的内在机理,提出的中国开放型经济"共轭环流"理论表明,发达国家价值链环流和发展中国家价值链环流之间相互联系,中国日益在"共轭环流"中居于枢纽地位。基于国家间双边贸易数据及海量微观数据对理论的实证检验显示,在发达国家价值链环流中,中国企业通过提升技术可以促进分工地位攀升,但空间逐步收窄;引领发展中国家价值链环流,有利于中国产业向价值链中高端攀升。中国需要强化在"共轭环流"中的枢纽地位。

Within the framework of the international commodity division of labor, we put forward a conjoint circulation theory for China’s open economy. Our exploration of the global division of labor hinges on emerging market economies and the internal mechanisms that affect changes in their position in the division of labor. Our theory demonstrates the interconnection of developed and developing countries’ value chain circulation, in which China plays a growing role as the hub of conjoint circulation. Using bilateral trade data together with big and micro-level data to test this theory empirically, we find that Chinese enterprises can boost their position in the division of labor in developed countries’ value chain circulation through the application of new technology, but this space gradually narrows. Chinese leadership of developing countries’ value chain circulation is conducive to Chinese enterprises’ advancing to higher levels of the value chain. China must strengthen its position as the hub of this conjoint circulation.