GM(1,1)模型预测分析2016年～2018年我国综合医院人均医药费用及药占比

The GM(1,1) Model Predicts the Trend of Per Capita Medical Expenses,Per Capital Drug Cost and Proportion of Drug Consumption Accounting for Total Medical Expenditure of General Hospitals in China in 2016～2018

目的使用灰色系统GM(1,1)方法分析我国综合医院2000～2015年人均医药费用的变化趋势,并对2016年～2018年我国综合医院人均医药费用进行预测分析,验证医改对人均医药费用的影响。方法对我国综合医院2000～2015年间人均医疗费用数据进行统计分析,并使用Matlab软件利用2000～2015年度人均医疗费用数据建立灰色系统GM(1,1)模型进行分析预测。结果 2016年～2018年综合医院患者人均医药费和人均药品费将继续升高,而药占比将持续降低。结论通过医疗改革,我国综合性医院药占比呈下降趋势,但药品费用和医药费用呈持续上升趋势。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and forecast per capital medical expenditures from 2016 to 2018 by Grey systems GM(1,1)method,and provide the basis for reducing the medical expenditures effectively,proving the impact of per capital medical expenditures on health care reform.METHODS Statistical analyzed the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 and established Grey systems GM(1,1)model by using the data of per capital medical expenditures from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and forecast.RESULTS In 2016~2018 patients in general hospital per capita medical expenses and per capita drug costs would continue to rise,while the drug share would continue to decline.CONCLUSION Through the medical reform,the proportion of drug consumption in China's general hospitals show a downward trend,but the cost of drugs and medical expenses show an upward trend.