环境规制约束下区域创新对碳压力水平的影响研究

The Impact of Regional Innovation on Carbon Pressure Level under Environmental Regulation

以2000～2015年中国区域面板数据为样本,测算了碳压力水平,分析了其总体特征,讨论了区域创新、环境规制和碳压力水平之间的理论框架,并应用全局因子分析法从技术创新、产业创新和制度创新3个维度对区域创新能力进行了分解。运用面板门槛模型实证检验了区域创新对碳压力水平变化的影响,研究发现:中国碳压力水平从盈余转变成超载的状态,在区域之间存在较大差异,碳汇增长速度滞后;环境规制对区域创新存在门槛效应,在一定的门槛值区间内,区域创新对碳压力水平改善起到正向效应,即"波特假说"是有条件成立的;区域基础异质性会对碳压力水平的变化产生不同的影响。研究表明,必须实施差异化的环境规制政策引导区域创新方向,实现低碳化转型并减少社会福利损失。

Taking the regional panel data of China from 2000 to 2015as samples,the carbon pressure levels of different regions are calculated and overall characteristics are analyzed.The theoretical framework of regional innovation,environmental regulation and carbon pressure level are discussed.Using the global factor analysis method,the regional innovation abilities are decomposed from three dimensions:technological innovation,industrial innovation and institutional innovation.The panel threshold model is used to empirically investigate the regional innovation effect on carbon pressure level.The results indicate that China’s carbon pressure levels change from surplus to overload and there are great differences among regions;the growth rate of carbon sequestration lags behind the increase in carbon pressure levels;environmental regulation has a threshold effect on regional innovation;within a certain threshold range,regional innovation has positive effect on the improvement of carbon pressure level,that is,the“Potter hypothesis”is conditional;and regional heterogeneity has different effects on the change of carbon pressure level,which suggests the implementation of differentiated regional environmental regulation policies will contribute to guide innovation,hence to achieve low carbon transition and reduce social welfare losses.