浅析土耳其与美国关系的新变化

An Initial Analysis of the New Changes in the Turkey-U.S.Relationship

长期以来,土耳其是美国的重要盟友,但近年来伴随着以叙利亚问题为焦点的中东地缘政治格局的深度调整,土耳其和美国的关系也阶段性地发生了剧烈震荡与调整。美土关系的恶化是叙北库尔德问题凸显、土耳其"7·15"未遂政变冲击、美土间价值观裂痕加剧、土耳其外交政策转型与美国中东政策对冲以及周边地缘政治因素影响的多重结果。但由于北约、投资需求等因素的存在,美土关系并未走向破裂,并在2018年10月后逐步进入了稳健调整的"新常态"。其具体表现为美国对土耳其的矛盾性认知、土耳其对美国日益强烈的离心倾向以及美土间结构性矛盾的阶段性爆发与两国关系的周期性震荡。

Although Turkey has been an important ally of the U.S.for a long time,its relations with the U.S.have undergone periodical ups and downs as well as adjustment in recent years with the profound changes of the geopolitical structure in the Middle East focusing on the Syria issue.The worsening of the Turkey-U.S.relationship has resulted from the rising Kurdish issue in northern Syria,the impact of the“July 15th”aborted coup in Turkey,the deteriorating value rift between Turkey and the U.S.,the hedging of Turkey’s foreign policy transformation against the US Middle East policy,and the impacts brought about by geopolitical factors in the neighborhood.However,as the demands to join NATO and for foreign investment,among other factors,exist,Turkey’s relations with the U.S.has not broken down,but instead entered a“new normal”featuring steady adjustment since October of 2018,as characterized by the US contradictory cognition of Turkey,Turkey’s growing centrifugal pull from the U.S.,the periodical breaking out of structural contradictions between Turkey and the U.S.,and the periodical oscillation in their bilateral relationship.