中国对“一带一路”国家工业制成品出口技术结构分析

Analysis on Technological Structure of China's Export of Manufactured Goods to the Nations along “The Belt and Road”

将基尼系数引入到产品技术含量指标(TC指数),重新构建GTC指数,采用相对值分割法将169种工业制成品分类,并对2000—2016年中国对"一带一路"国家工业制成品出口技术结构进行分析。计量部分基于跨国动态面板模型,利用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)从技术结构层面探讨中国对"一带一路"国家出口增长的影响因素。研究结果发现:中国对"一带一路"国家出口技术复杂度整体呈上升态势,出口以中技术工业制成品为主,高、中高技术工业制成品比例发展迟缓。中国对"一带一路"国家出口具有动态积极的正向连续性特征,对外直接投资是促进高技术工业制成品出口的关键引擎,研发支出能显著提升中高技术、中技术工业制成品出口额,产业结构差异和贸易成本对工业制成品出口起到抑制作用。

By introducing the Gini coefficient into the product technical content index(TC index),this paper reconstructs the GTC index,classifies 169 manufactured goods using the relative value segmentation method,and analyzes the technological structure of China’s export of manufactured goods to the nations along“The Belt and Road”during 2000-2016.The empirical part is based on the cross-country dynamic panel model,and explores the influencing factors of increase of China’s export to the nations along“The Belt and Road”from the perspective of technological structure and by using the system generalized method of moments(SYS-GMM).The results show that:for China’s export to the nations along“The Belt and Road”,the technological sophistication ascends overall.Medium tech goods are exported mainly,the proportion of high&medium-high tech goods develops slowly.China’s export to the nations along“The Belt and Road”features in dynamic and positive continuity.OFDI is key engine for promoting the export of high-tech manufactured goods.R&D expenditures can significantly increase the export volume of medium-high&medium tech goods.Industrial structure differences and trade costs have inhibiting effect on the export of manufactured goods.