NAQPMS和CMAQ模式在臭氧预报应用中的效果检验

The Effects of NAQPMS Model and CMAQ model in Ozone Forecasting Applications

基于2017年泰州市环境空气质量自动监测数据,定量评估NAQPMS模式、CMAQ模式对O_3-8h的预报效果。结果表明,就全年数据分析,模式预报值高于监测值,2种模式对O_3-8h预报的相关系数在0.67～0.79,标准化平均偏差NMB在1.1%～2.2%,标准化平均误差NME在30.5%～20.7%,均在理想范围内。按不同季节分析,NAQPMS模式对O_3-8h预报效果呈现春季秋季较好、冬季较差的特征;CMAQ模式对O_3-8h预报效果春季夏季较好,秋季冬季稍差。总体而言,CMAQ模式对O_3-8h预报效果较好。

Based on the automatic monitoring data of Taizhou environmental air quality in 2017,the predictive effect of NAQPMS model and CMAQ model for O3-8h was quantitatively evaluated.The results show that model predicted values are higher than the monitoring data based on annual data analysis,correlation coefficient for the two models for O3-8h prediction is within the range of 0.67~0.79,the range of NMB is 1.1%~2.2%,the range of NME is 30.5%~20.7%.Both are within the ideal range.According to the analysis of different seasons,the prediction effect of NAQPMS model for O3-8h is better in spring and autumn,while the effect is poor in winter.CMAQ model has a better predictive effect for O3-8h in spring and summer,while the predictive effect is relatively poor in autumn and winter.In general,the predictive effect of CMAQ model for O3-8h is better.