江苏省大气污染防治考核达标预测方法研究

Study on Prediction Method of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Assessment in Jiangsu Province

对我国大气污染防治考核内容及考核目标进行了介绍,指出江苏省2014～2017年PM_(2.5)年均浓度逐年需下降的目标,并以江苏本省为例,介绍了江苏省保障大气污染防治考核达标开展的相关数据分析工作。一是建立PM_(2.5)浓度每周、每月通报制度,"以周保月,以月保年",通报13个设区市及全省PM_(2.5)浓度阶段性考核达标情况;二是开展考核可达性预测分析工作,以现状浓度为基础,如需达到年度考核目标值,预测出年度剩余日中PM_(2.5)浓度最大限值。江苏省开展的大气污染考核达标数据分析工作,为决策者提供科学依据,省市两级政府部门能够及时加强大气污染防治管控力度,确保考核顺利达标。

The article introduced contents and objectives of air pollution prevention and control assessment in China,it showed the expected objectives of decreasing PM2.5 annual average concentration in Jiangsu province from 2014 to 2017.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,the data analysis work in order to fulfill the assessment of ensuring the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution in Jiangsu Province was introduced.First,establish weekly and monthly notification system for PM2.5 concentration,which would notify the periodic assessment of PM2.5 concentration to the governments of 13 cities and the province;second,develop assessment accessibility and predictability analysis work based on the current concentration,predict the maximum concentration of PM2.5 in the remaining days of the year.The data analyses work of air pollution prevention and control assessment provided with the scientific basis for decision makers,such that the government of cities and province would strengthen air pollution prevention and control efforts in time and to ensure that the assessment can meet the objectives successfully.