市域能源碳排放影响因素分析及减碳机制研究——以福建省为例

Influencing factors and reduction mechanism of carbon emissions at the city-range: An empirical study on Fujian province

选取福建省市域作为研究对象,应用扩展型的STIRPAT-PLS模型对2010～2016年福建省市域碳排放影响因子进行实证分析,探讨驱动福建省市域碳排放量增长的主要影响因素和各因素的影响程度,明确碳排放控制的主要领域.结果表明:总人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、第二产业比重和能源强度对碳排放量增加有正向驱动作用,而第三产业比重对碳排放量增加有负向驱动作用.总人口、城镇化率以及第二产业比重对碳排放量增长的贡献最大.据此,建议福建当前及未来时期减碳重点应是采取优化能源结构和促进产业结构升级,加速发展清洁、再生能源与提高能源效率相并重等策略.

In this paper,9 cities of Fujian province was selected as the research object,and an extended STIRPAT-PLS model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of Fujian Province's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2016.The model was able to determine the main influence factors on the increase of carbon emissions and calculate the influence rate of each factor.The results showed that total population,urbanization rate,per-capita GDP,secondary industry ratio and energy intensity have positive driving effects on the increase of carbon emissions,while tertiary industry ratio has negative driving effects on the increase of carbon emissions.The three factors such as population,per-capita GDP and urbanization rate make the greatest contribution to increase of carbon emissions.On this basis,the paper proposed several policy suggestions to reduce carbon emissions,including enhancing the development of renewable and clean energy,promoting the optimization and upgrading of energy and industrial structures,and improving energy efficiency,which can be considered as a valid solution for win-win targets of regional economic development and carbon emissions reduction.