城镇化、第三产业和房价的关系研究

The Relationship Among Urbanization,the Third Industry and Housing Prices

城镇化进程加速带来了庞大的住房需求,房产市场供不应求,房价涨幅攀升。城镇化和第三产业相互促进发展,房价持续高涨危害社会稳定和经济增长。本文选取2008～2017年全国30个省级面板数据,针对城镇化、第三产业和房价的关系进行分析,实证结果表明:在1%显著性水平下,城镇化水平和房价、第三产业产值和房价均显著正相关,城镇化水平的提升、第三产业产值的增长会带来当地房价的上涨,且存在明显的区域差异性。推进城镇化的同时应完善住房保障制度、优化第三产业结构,有效调控房价水平。

The acceleration of urbanization has brought huge demand for housing,the housing market is in short supply,and housing prices are rising.Urbanization and the third industries promote each other s development.Housing prices continue to rise will endanger social stability and economic growth.This paper selects 30 provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2017 for analyzing the relationship among urbanization,the third industry and housing price.The empirical results show that urbanization level and housing price,the third industry output value and housing price are significantly positively correlated under the 1%significant level.The promotion of urbanization level and the increase of the third industry output value will bring about the rise of local housing prices.The price increases and there are obvious regional differences.While promoting urbanization,we should improve the housing security system,optimize the third industrial structure and effectively control the level of housing prices.