我国最优消费率测算及其影响因素研究

Study on Optimal Consumption Rate of China and Its Influencing Factor

消费作为经济增长的三驾马车之一,其增长及稳定对一个国家的经济增长和经济稳定起到了极其重要的作用。有利于经济长期增长和国民福利持续提高的最优消费率存在性已被众多学者证明,但关于最优消费率的测算、影响因素及政策如何影响最优消费率的研究则较为缺乏。本文在储蓄——消费行为内生化的拉姆齐模型中,将经济达到稳态时的消费率界定为最优消费率,给出了最优消费率的显示解,在参数校准的基础上,得出我国最优消费率为63. 02%,并讨论了各外生参数变化如何影响最优消费率,最后给出了相关政策建议。

As one of the "three carriages"of economic growth,consumption growth and stability play a very important role in the economic growth and economic stability of a country. Many scholars have proved the existence of the optimal consumption rate,which is conducive to the long-term economic growth and the continuous improvement of national welfare. However,there are few studies on the estimation of the optimal consumption rate,its influencing factors and how policies affect the optimal consumption rate. The paper defines a steady state consumption rate as optimal consumption rate in the Ramsey model,and then gives the analytical solution of optimal consumption rate,China’s optimal consumption rate is about 63. 02% based on the calibration parameters,and discusses how the exogenous parameters affect the optimal consumption rate;finally,puts forward some related policy suggestions.