基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的兴泉铁路宁化至泉州段线路方案对比研究

Study on Route Alignment of Ninghua-Quanzhou Section of Xingguo-Quanzhou Railway Based on AHP-fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

兴泉铁路宁化至泉州段铁路的修建将使本地区资源优势迅速转化为经济优势,对完善路网结构具有十分重要的意义,因此对其线路走向的不同方案进行细致全面地比选尤其关键。铁路线路方案比选是复杂的多目标决策问题,运用AHP-模糊综合评价的方法,通过技术、经济、环境和社会4个子系统,对线路长度、工程投资、工程地质地形条件、线路带动地方经济发展等多个方面进行比较分析,计算得出宁化至泉州段采用大田—德化—永春县方案作为推荐方案的建议。该评价方法的使用避免定性分析的主观性和定量分析对数据的苛刻要求,将影响兴泉铁路线路比选段的各影响因素统一起来进行评价,使比选方案的评价结果能够得到更直观的呈现,也为今后铁路工程的建设提供参考依据。

The construction of Ninghua-Quanzhou section of Xingguo-Quanzhou Railway will quickly convert the region’s resource advantage into economic advantage,which is of great significance in completing the railway network.Therefore,making detailed and comprehensive comparison of the alignment schemes is particularly critical.Comparison of alignment schemes involves many complex factors.In this paper,the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is employed to analyze route length,project investment,geological and terrain conditions,local economic development and some other aspects based on the four subsystems of technology,economy,environment and society.The calculation results recommend the Datian-Dehua-Yongchun route scheme.The use of the evaluation method helps to prevent the subjectivity of qualitative analysis and rigorous requirements of quantitative analysis and to conduct comprehensive evaluation of all influencing factors of the Ninghua-Quanzhou section to allow more intuitive evaluation results of schemes and provid meaningful references for future construction of railways.