基于加权云模型的全电子联锁系统运营安全风险评估

Safety Risk Assessment of All Electronic Computer Interlocking System Based on Weighted Cloud Model

结合现场实际情况,在系统层面对于全电子计算机联锁系统进行更加客观准确的运营安全评估,综合考虑系统的风险严重度及风险可能性,提出一种基于最优组合权重计算法的云模型安全评估方法。首先从人员、设备、环境、管理、维修5个方面建立安全风险评估体系,在专家评估的基础上运用最优组合权重法计算体系中的底层指标权重,再将权重代入评估云模型的计算中,分别得到系统的风险可能性和风险严重度评估值,综合得出系统的运营安全风险容忍等级。将该方法引入全电子联锁系统的运营安全评估中,通过对实际数据的计算,证实该方法能够克服以往评估方法的主观性和片面性,使得到的结果更加准确和直观,实现真正意义上的"综合"评估。

Combining with the actual situation at the site,more objective and accurate operational safety assessment is conducted at the system level for the full-electronic interlocking system.Considering the risk severity and risk potential of the system,this paper proposes a cloud model safety assessment method based on the optimal combination weighting calculation method.The safety risk assessment system is established in terms of personnel,equipment,environment,management and maintenance.Based on expert evaluation,the optimal combination weighting calculation method is used to calculate the weight of the underlying indicators in the system,and weights are then assigned to the assessment.In the calculation of the cloud model,the risk potential and severity evaluation values of the system are obtained respectively,and the operational safety risk tolerance level of the system is comprehensively obtained.This method is introduced into the operational safety assessment of the all-electronic interlocking system.Through the calculation of the actual data,it is verified that the method can overcome the subjectivity and one-sidedness of the previous assessment methods,making the results obtained more accurate and intuitive,and achieving real sense of comprehensive assessment.