农业技术进步与我国粮食生产产量关系的实证研究——基于2009—2015年31个省级面板数据的分析

Empirical Research on the Relation Between Agricultural Technology Progress and China's Grain Production——An Analysis Based on 31 Provincial Panel Data From 2009 to 2015

随着工业的发展,我国耕地面积不断减少,但粮食的需求逐渐增加。基于2009—2015年我国31个省份的面板数据,运用计量模型分析农业生产技术进步与粮食产量之间的关系。分析结果表明:耕地面积对粮食产量的影响较大,每增加1%的耕地面积会增加0. 77%的粮食产量;农业劳动力的增加会带来粮食产量的负增长;农业机械总动力与粮食产量存在正相关性,虽然影响较小,但农业机械化的改进空间相当大;化肥的使用虽然带来了粮食的增长,但随之而来的还有土地的污染,应合理利用;农药的使用总量对粮食产量的影响最小。

With the development of China′s industry,the cultivated land is dwindling,while the grain demand has gradually increased.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2015,the relationship between the agricultural technical progress and the grain production is analyzed via econometric model.The result shows that(1)The cultivated land area has the greater impact on grain yield,and if cultivated land is increased by 1%,the grain production will increase by 0.77%.(2)The increase in agricultural labor force will lead to negative growth in grain production.(3)The total power of agricultural machinery and grain production have a positive correlation.Although the impact is little,the agricultural mechanization still needs to be improved to greater extent.(4)The utilization of fertilizer contributes to the growth of grain,resulting to the land pollution,and it should be rational.(5)The gross amount of used pesticides has the least impact on grain production.