2018年人民币汇率走势回顾与2019年展望

Retrospect of RMB Exchange Rate in 2018 and Prospect in 2019

2018年人民币汇率经历了从升值到贬值的转换过程。其主要特点表现为:经济基本面对汇率的短期走势影响进一步增大,境内并未出现恐慌性购汇,与2016年形成较大反差;离岸汇价对在岸有一定的引领作用。文章分析了未来人民币汇率的主要影响因素,指出未来经常项目顺差下降的趋势可能持续,我国国际收支将呈现经常项目和资本金融项目双向波动的格局,风险情绪对汇率走势的影响进一步增加。

In 2018,the RMB exchange rate experienced a movement from appreciation to depreciation,with the main characteristics as follows:the economic fundamentals had an increasing impact on the short-term movement of the RMB,and there was no panic purchase of foreign currencies in China,which marked a big contrast to the year 2016;the CNH exchange rate played a certain leading role in the changes of the CNY exchange rate.The article analyzes the main factors that will influence the RMB exchange rate in 2019,and points out that the current account surplus tend to maintain the declining trend in the future,China's international balance of payments will show a pattern of two-way fluctuation on current accounts and capital and finance accounts,and the risk sentiment will have an increasing impact on the movement of the RMB.