摘要
2018年债券市场行情经历了复杂的逻辑演变,在多重噪音的干扰中,投资者逐渐明晰了决定利率走势的内生主要矛盾和利率波动区间的外生性,并在市场认知从分歧到统一的过程中以加速度将预期交易变现。跨年之际,市场和政府对来年经济压力增大的前景判断几无二致,但在政策可信任性不断加强的环境下,市场预期一致性的强化反而令投资者对2019年债市行情的不确定性增大。
In 2018,the bond market experienced a complex evolution of the market logic.With the interference of multiple noises,investors gradually recognized that the endogenous contradictions determined the trend of interest rates while the exogenous factors affected the fluctuation of interest rates.Investors got their anticipated transactions done in an accelerated speed as the divergent market perception coming to an agreement.In the new year beginning,the market and the government reached a consensus on the prospect of economy with increasing economic pressure.However,as the credibility of policy has been constantly enhanced,the consistency in market expectations will be strengthened,which will in turn lead to increased uncertainties in the bond market in 2019.
出处
《中国货币市场》
2019年第1期20-23,共4页
China Money
