经常账户与汇率如何联动——实证角度

The Correlation between Current Accounts and Exchange Rates---From an Empirical Perspective

文章从实证角度分析不同经济体经常账户与实际有效汇率之间的关系。相关性指标显示两者为反向关系,与理论推导一致。Granger因果分析显示新兴经济体有效汇率变动将导致经常账户变化,反之不成立;发达经济体二者之间并不存在显著因果关系。有限样本显示在经济体经常账户趋势性由顺差转逆差的过程中,本币实际有效汇率承受贬值压力。未来密切关注我国经常账户顺差收窄的趋势。

The paper analyzes the relationship between the current accounts and the real effective exchange rates of different economies from an empirical perspective.Correlation indicators show that the two have a negative correlation,consistent with the result of theoretical analysis.Granger causality analysis shows that changes in the effective exchange rates will lead to changes in the current accounts in emerging economies,however,it is not applicable in reverse;there is no significant causal relationship between the two in developed economies.Limited samples show that the real effective exchange rate will be under pressure to depreciate when an economy is switching from a current account surplus to a current account deficit.In the future,close attention should be paid to the declining trend of the current account surplus in China.