广义货币M2增速放缓之谜

The Puzzle of Declining Broad Money M2 Growth Rate

本文发现,2011年以来迅速发展的银行资产创新业务,影响了真实货币乘数增速近80%的变动,主导了M2增速;而央行调控的外生基础货币增速对M2增速的影响可以忽略。2017年以来,金融严监管压缩银行资产创新业务,造成其派生存款增速下降,是近期我国M2增速下降的主要原因。如果金融监管维持高压态势,同时央行维持较低的基础货币增速,M2增速将出现过快下滑,冲击实体经济。这对货币政策在"防范金融风险"与"支持实体经济"之间寻求平衡提出严峻挑战。

The paper finds that the rapid development of bank asset innovations since 2011 has affected nearly 80%of the variation of real money multiplier growth,which dominants the growth of M2,and the impact of the growth rate of exogenous base money controlled by the central bank on the M2 growth could be ignored.Since 2017,strict financial supervision has reduced the bank asset innovations,resulting in a decline in the growth rate of its derivative deposit,which is the main reason for the recent decline in China's M2 growth.If financial regulation maintains a highpressure situation and the central bank maintains a low growth rate of base money,the M2 growth will fall too fast and then impact the real economy negatively.This poses a serious challenge to the monetary policy which seeks a balance between“preventing financial risks”and“supporting the economic growth”.