“十三五”以来中国大豆市场形势分析与展望

Analysis and Prospect of China's Soybean Market since the 13th Five-Year Plan

"十三五"以来在农业供给侧结构性改革政策的持续推动下,中国大豆种植面积和产量已连续3年稳步恢复;受大豆压榨需求增加拉动,中国大豆进口量稳步增加,但2018年估计出现下降; 2016—2018年国产大豆均价较"十二五"期间下跌,国际大豆价格自2016年以来稳步抬升、 2018年下跌;全球主产国气候异常、国际贸易关系成为影响大豆价格的主要因素。展望未来,预计中国大豆面积仍将继续增加并逐渐稳定在一定水平,大豆进口量增速将进一步放缓。

Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,due to the continuous promotion of the agricultural supply-side structural reform policy,China's soybean planting area and output have been steadily restored for three consecutive years;due to the increase in soybean crushing demand,China's soybean import volume has increased steadily,but it is expected to decline in 2018;the average price of domestic soybean from 2016 to 2018 fell down compared with the 12th Five-Year Plan period.The international soybean price has risen steadily since 2016,and fell down in 2018.The climate abnormalities in the major producing countries and international trade relations have become the main factors affecting soybean prices.Looking to the future,it is expected that China soybean acreage will continue to increase and gradually stabilize at a certain level,and the growth rate of soybean import volume will further slow down.