基于队列视角的中国农村人口内在增长趋势分析

Intrinsic Growth Trend of Rural Population in China Based on the Perspective of Cohort

采用初育年龄测度终身生育水平的方法,利用1950—2016年农村育龄妇女年龄别生育率数据以及相关人口统计数据,估计并预测了1950—1996年进入生育期的47个育龄妇女队列的终身生育水平以及人口内在增长趋势。研究发现,利用初育年龄仍然能够实现对终身生育率的高度拟合,农村人口终身生育水平呈长期平稳下降的趋势;根据农村人口内在自然增长率的计算结果,从1973年进入生育期的育龄妇女队列开始,农村人口内在增长水平已由正转为负,比终身生育率所揭示的达到更替水平的时间早了5年。由此可知,生育政策的调整不仅要关注实际的生育水平,同时也要注重人口内在增长趋势。

The author used the age-specific fertility data of rural women from 1950 to 2016 and other relevant demographic data to estimate and predict the complete fertility rate(CFR)and intrinsic growth rate of the cohorts from 1950 to 1996 by the method of estimating CFR based on the mean childbearing age at first birth.The study found that the mean childbearing age at first birth could still fit to the CFR at a high degree,and the rural population's CFR showed a long-term steady decline.Based on the calculation of the intrinsic growth rate of the rural population,it was known that from the cohort in 1973,the intrinsic growth rate has turned from positive to negative,and was five years earlier than the CFR showed,which implied that the adjustment of the birth policy should not only pay attention to the actual fertility level,but also pay attention to the intrinsic growth trend of the population.