中国在东亚区域生产网络的地位和比较优势研究

A Study of China's Position and Comparative Advantage in the East Asia Production Network in the Context of TPP

本文利用全球价值链(GVC)测算结果证实了2005年后中国已经取代日本在东亚区域生产网络的核心国地位,成为新三角贸易格局的中心。然而,TPP协议会削弱这一地位,给中国带来贸易转移效应,这主要是由于TPP成员国优势互补,且与中国具有比较优势的行业存在较强竞争。因此,特朗普重启TPP谈判对中国存在一定威胁。为了找出比较优势的影响因素,本文进一步设立面板模型,细分到不同行业分别研究短期与长期的影响,实证结果表明:关税、劳动力成本、人均GDP、汇率对比较优势指标的影响显著。不过,对不同行业的影响存在差异,这也为我们提供了政策依据。政策制度仅对资源密集型行业短期提升比较优势有正向影响,国家创新和关税降低对一国长期比较优势建立有正向促进作用,而危机的冲击对一国比较优势水平的影响不显著。

Through the measurement of global value chain(GVC),this paper verifies that China has replaced Japan as the dominant power in the East Asia production network and become the center of the new triangular trade since 2005.However,Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(TPP)will weaken this position and bring trade transfer effects because the TPP countries enjoy complementary advantages and some of them have strong competition even in the industries where China has comparative advantages.So Trump’s reopening of negotiations to rejoin TPP might pose a threat to China.In order to find out the factors influencing comparative advantages,this paper sets up the panel data model to study the short-term and long-term effects on different industries.Empirical results show that tariff,labor cost,GDP per capita,exchange rate all have obvious effects but there are differences in different industries,which offers important information for policy making.Policies and regulations have a positive effect only on increasing the comparative advantage of resource intensive industries within a short period while research and development and tariff decrease have positive effects on promoting comparative advantage in the long run.However,the impact of crisis does not have obvious effect here.