中俄能源外交的历史演进

The Evolution of Sino-Russian Energy Diplomacy

中俄两国围绕能源合作开展了一系列外交活动,取得了诸多重大进展,但同时也进行着复杂的博弈,面临着难以克服的分歧。历史上,中日俄曾围绕东西伯利亚-太平洋石油管道的选线方案进行了激烈的争论。当前,中俄能源合作的巨大互补性仍然推动了两国开展能源外交。在石油领域,中俄先后开展了"石油换贷款"等合作。在天然气领域,中俄历经波折,在天然气价格方面签署供应合同并开始建设东线天然气管线。在电力领域,双方在"俄电入华"、核电及水电具体项目上也进行了洽谈,取得了诸多成果。另外,中俄元首互访机制、总理定期会晤机制、副总理级别的能源合作委员会以及电力合作委员会现已成为两国不同级别能源合作的重要机制保障。未来,中俄石油外交还将取得更大突破,天然气外交很可能在短期内再无进展,中俄能源外交总体上将呈现出动力与阻力并存的态势。

China and Russia have launched a series of diplomatic activities on energy cooperation,which have made much significant progress.However,at the same time,both China and Russia are also engaged in complex games and face serious differences.In history,China,Japan and Russia competed fiercely on the route selection of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline.However,the enormous complementarity of Sino-Russian energy cooperation has still promoted energy diplomacy between the two countries.At present,China and Russia have successively carried out cooperation projects such as“upstream oil replacement”and“oil for loans”in the oil sector.In the sector of natural gas,after some twists and turns,China and Russia have finally agreed on the price of natural gas,signed supply contracts and started to build gas pipelines on the Eastern route.In the sector of electric power,the two Countries held talks on“Russian Power to China”as well as other specific projects of nuclear power and hydropower,which have achieved many positive results.In addition,reciprocal visits by the heads of state between China and Russia,regular meetings between the prime ministers,the Energy Cooperation Committee co-chaired by China’s Vice Premier and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister,and the Commission on Electric Power Cooperation have now become important mechanisms to safeguard energy cooperation at different levels between the two countries.In the future,Sino-Russian oil diplomacy will also make greater breakthroughs,while the natural gas diplomacy is likely to have no further progress in the short term.In general,energy diplomacy between China and Russia presents a prospect of both progress and setbacks.