人口结构变化如何影响对外直接投资

How Does the Demographic Transition Affect OFDI

文章提出了人口结构变化通过影响资本劳动比来影响对外直接投资的理论假说,基于2003-2016年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了人口结构变化对对外直接投资的影响和内在机制。研究结果表明:人口结构变化与对外直接投资呈先增加后减少的倒U型关系。进一步考察人口结构变化影响对外直接投资的作用机制发现,人口结构变化对资本劳动比存在显著的倒U型影响,资本劳动比与对外直接投资显著正相关,验证了资本劳动比是人口结构变化影响对外直接投资的主要作用机制。

This paper presents the theoretical hypothesis that the demographic transition affects OFDI by influencing the capi.tal-labor ratio,and based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2016,empirically investigates the influence and internal mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI.The study results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship which shows some robustness between demographic transition and OFDI.A further study on the mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI finds that the demographic transition has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the capital-labor ratio.The capital-labor ratio is significantly positively correlated with OFDI,which verifies that the capital-labor ratio is the main mechanism of demographic transition on OFDI.