基于熵权TOPSIS法的重庆能源安全研究

Research on energy security of Chongqing based on entropy weight TOPSIS method

从能源供应、能源需求、能源使用三个方面构建区域能源安全评价指标体系,并借助熵权TOPSIS法对2006-2016年重庆的能源安全状况进行评价,再利用灰色关联法探讨各指标与重庆总能源安全、能源供应安全、能源需求安全、能源使用安全的关联程度。研究发现:重庆的能源安全呈曲折上升,从临界安全—较不安全—临界安全的变化态势。其中,能源需求、能源使用呈曲折上升的变化趋势,多处于临界安全状况;能源供应呈现下降—上升—下降的变化趋势,多是处于较不安全状态。生产多样性、市场流动性、城镇化率、非化石能源消费比重分别是与重庆能源综合安全、能源供应安全、能源需求安全、能源使用安全的关联程度最高。

The regional energy security evaluation index system was constructed from three aspects:energy supply,energy demand and energy use,and the energy security situation of Chongqing from2006to2016was evaluated by entropy weight TOPSIS method.Then the grey correlation method was used to discuss the relationship between each index and total energy security,energy supply security,energy demand security and energy use security in Chongqing.It was found that:the energy security in Chongqing had a zigzag rise,from critical security to less security to critical security.Among them,energy demand and energy use showed a zigzag upward trend,mostly in the state of critical security,energy supply presented a downward-upward-downward trend,mostly in a less secure state.Diversity of production,market liquidity,urbanization rate and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption respectively had the highest correlation with Chongqing's comprehensive energy security,energy supply security,energy demand security and energy use security.