基于基因表达式编程的中国劳动力质量空间差异预测

Prediction of Labor Quality's Spatial Difference in China Based on Gene Expression Programming

基于基因表达式编程(GEP)算法,预测了2016～2035年中国30省的劳动力质量趋势,并由此探究未来中国劳动力质量的空间差异演化特征。研究表明:自"十三五"时期开始,中国东部、东北、中部、西部的劳动力质量将普遍提高,但某些省份20年后仍不能达到目前东部的平均水平。与此同时,劳动力质量的空间差异先下降后回升,区域内差异持续高于区域间差异。未来东部环渤海、长三角省份劳动力质量提升后劲十足,但东部空间差异持续偏高;东北和中部将改变普遍偏低态势,区域内有望产生劳动力质量"增长极";西部劳动力质量提升明显,从而空间差异波动下降。因此,普及高中阶段教育的决策恰逢其时,以此为契机能够有效提升未来劳动力质量并降低其空间差异,从而助力供给侧结构性改革的深入推进,推动新时代中国经济发展顺利转型。

Based on Gene Expression Programming(GEP)algorithm,this paper forecasts labor quality trend of China's 30 provinces,and explores the evolution of spatial difference of the labor quality in China.Results show that:labor quality in eastern,northeastern,central and western China will generally improve since the thirteen five-year plan period,while labor quality of some provinces could not reach the current average level of eastern China.At the same time,the spatial difference of labor quality will rebound after fall first,and the difference within regions sustains higher than that between regions.In the future,labor quality of provinces in Bohai rim and Yangtze river delta will improve steadily,but spatial difference in eastern China will remain high.And labor quality in northeastern and central China will be more concentrated from generally low levels,producing“growth pole”within the region.In addition,western China will experience quick development of labor quality thus falling space difference.Therefore,it is a timely decision of popularizing high school education,based on which could effectively improve labor quality and reduce the spatial difference,thus to deepen the supply side structural reform and promote the smooth transition of economic development in this new era.