人民币汇率与中国出口商品结构:短期、长期和未来变动

RMB Exchange Rate and China's Export Commodity Structure: Short-Term, Long-Term and Future

本文从价格弹性、生产投入、要素价格3个方面探讨了汇率变动影响出口商品结构的理论机制,进而从价格弹性、长短期关系以及未来变动的视角对其进行了实证检验。主要结论表明,人民币升值轻微抑制了中国整体出口,不同商品受到影响的程度不同。升值将减少初级产品和劳动密集型产品的出口,增加部分资本、技术密集型产品的出口,由于汇率的长期弹性要大于短期,这种结构优化将是一个长期过程。另外,不同的升值方式和升值幅度所导致的出口商品结构变动是不同的,为了实现出口贸易的稳定发展,渐进升值是较好的选择。

This paper explains how exchange rate change affects the export commodity structure based on price elasticity,production inputs,and factor prices,and we get some empirical evidence from the perspectives of price elasticity,long short-term and future.The main results show RMB appreciation slightly cuts down China's overall export.It reduces the export of primary products and labor-intensive products,increases the export of capital,technology-intensive products,so the export commodity structure can be optimized in a long run.Different commodity has different price transmission elasticity of the exchange change,and this transmission on China’s export commodity structure is imperfect.The changes of the export structure perform differently by different ways and extents of RMB appreciation.Progressive appreciation of the way is a better choice.